AI & Jobs: Understanding How Things May Actually Happen

AI these days seems to be a hot topic, maybe because of the release of ChatGPT or maybe I feel that way because of the way we consume information on the internet suggested mostly by recommendation engines. There are tonnes of videos talking about how ChatGPT will replace many jobs/businesses (even from news sources). No doubt ChaGPT appears to be really good at so many things that one can think (or many are even worried) that the way the AI field is progressing soon we will have far better AI that will replace many jobs. There are so many things you need to consider before you make up your mind to trust a piece of information especially when it is coming from the news or social media. News/social media sources are capable of provoking/shaping your emotions and maybe people will be demotivated if they repeatedly hear that AIs are going to do so and so. To offer a most probable understanding of what may actually happen. I am sharing an extended version of this post here to give readers a better understanding. At the end of this post, you will learn so many things and get a clear understanding of what may actually happen. So, make sure to read this post till the end and try to connect the dots. It’s a long post but worth reading to understand the complexity of AI & jobs.

Every entrepreneur enters the market with a vision and strong desire to help people, make a difference and sometimes for money but as they face the harsh reality of the market and customers their core motive loses its importance and profitability becomes their first priority somehow. It’s not exactly a bad thing but this basic human nature or behaviour is the building block of automation in addition to several other factors like our hunger for progress and advancements. IBM defines automation as a term for technology applications where human input is minimized. Automation over the last 100 years has added immensely to the whole economic output of the world. Our standard of living has also improved, we have added many millionaires and billionaires but the data-based reality is not that promising for the majority of the people.

The Idea Of Work/Job: Concept And Purpose

The idea of a work/job is really interesting because most of the time we forget to ask whether we actually need to work or not.

Do we really need jobs? Do we really need to work as human beings if AIs can do the work for us? Well, I would say if the world would be a simple place with just a few hundred people it would be a lot easier to answer these questions. Though these questions can raise so many other questions. If everything would be available to us easily we would not be working, right? Be it 9 to 5 or a business. We started working because we wanted to survive and for centuries we have managed to do so with the help of our intelligence and knowledge. Nature has designed us in a manner to force us to work(as in survival tone) or you can say there are limited resources, and we need to do something about it otherwise we are going to suffer. For centuries, human beings have learned to survive in communities. We have developed several economic and political systems so that we all can coexist and survive peacefully. We have also developed the idea of capitalism which has served our society for centuries. Now, this idea called capitalism has brought us to the phase of technological advancements where we are trying to build something called “Artificial Intelligence” so that our lives can become a lot easier.

People in a capitalist system either work as employees or as employers. Mostly as employees. The capitalist world always appears to be controlled by very few people and it is known for huge income inequalities. The goal of every other business is to generate profit with low investment and employees are the biggest cost factor for any business. Every business would love to have something that can reduce the cost of running the business while keeping the same revenue or higher and AI is something that can help them, maybe not today but in future.

The concept of jobs has definitely helped us a lot because work offers us a sense of purpose in our purposeless lives and some income to survive. The job and the purpose of life are two different things. We human beings desire some sense of purpose irrespective of whether we work or not, I mean work as in the job. Some people find their purpose in their jobs as well. The author of the book Life 3.0, Max Tegmark, has mentioned five points that jobs offer us:

1. a social network of friends and colleagues
2. a healthy and virtuous lifestyle
3. respect, self-esteem, self-efficacy, and a pleasurable sense of “flow” stemming from doing something one is good at
4. a sense of being needed and making a difference
5. a sense of meaning from being part of and serving something larger than oneself

Now he has also talked about how these things can be achieved even outside work like playing sports, clubs, hobbies, music, social events, etc. So, let’s say in the future if all the jobs are replaced by AIs then these are a few things we can do to help human beings find a sense of purpose but this is certainly not how society will evolve at least in the real world. I am not talking about a utopian world. It’s better to stick to the current standard of our social reality but there are many possibilities and who knows we end up creating a utopian world for everyone.

Aristotle in his book Politics has said that if an employer finds an equally effective mechanical method to perform any task that was previously done by a human, he will definitely replace the person. Obviously, in our case, I am referring to the AIs and we have enough historical data to be convinced of his statement.

If we look at history, so many jobs have been replaced and so many new jobs have been created due to technological advancements but understand that this time we are dealing with something intelligent(not currently but get the point). Until now, we don’t have intelligent machines and we don’t have any data to make any conclusion about how things will be in the future. Some say the AIs would create new jobs even if some jobs are replaced, some say even the new jobs would be performed by AIs. I will get back to this point but let’s first see an example and find out some patterns from the historical data.

The author of the book Life 3.0, Max Tegmark has also mentioned an interesting example of two horses who are discussing the rise of the internal combustion engine and the risk to their jobs during 1900. They are discussing that there would be new jobs for horses as they had in past but the new jobs never arrived for them and horses today are almost useless or you can say unemployed in their language. This happened because something far more effective and productive replaced their jobs like cars etc. Do you think that the same will happen to humans when intelligent machines can do things far more effectively at a lower cost?

The Basic Economic Concept Behind Automation: In Layman’s Terms

So, let’s say a new basic automation technology is introduced in the market or in any business. This new technology will increase productivity thus reducing the cost of production of the businesses which in turn will increase the market demand for that particular product as prices will be lower now. Also, this increase in demand will increase employment as more and more people are purchasing the product but if further automation is introduced in the business or the market then fewer and fewer people are needed which means people running the business are going to lay many employees as they are no longer needed. Also, this will allow businesses to keep a higher share of the profits as they are not spending so much on salaries. This further automation thus increases unemployment in the market. This is just a simple explanation of what actually happens with the introduction of automation or new technology. Here is a graph explaining this phenomenon: automation first increases employment then further automation reduces employment. I have taken this from the book ‘Human Compatible’ written by Stuart Russell:

Many people may say that now that people are spending less in one area then they will have more money to spend in other segments thus increasing employment in other areas but the results are inconclusive as researched by many people. A few want to look at the bigger picture that due to new technologies society as a whole is better off and we can enjoy more goods and services for the same level of productivity but if you zoom in a little bit you will see that the majority of the income or revenue share is going in the hands of a few people that means owners are taking home the majority of the pie and workers are getting the smallest pie. This is evident from the data:

If you are curious about income inequality then you should have a look at the wealth distribution data on your own to find out the pattern. The point I am trying to make here is “If your work can be done by a cheap alternative that is equally capable then you will be replaced” It has happened before and it will happen in the future as well.

There is no doubt there are huge economic benefits. Technological progress has made our lives a lot easier and we are enjoying things our great-grandfathers would have never imagined. New technologies have opened up opportunities for new businesses and jobs as well for example the Internet but the question is whether the same pattern of opportunities will be repeated when we have machines far more capable, productive, and equally intelligent.

So What May Actually Happen?

To answer this question I have divided the timeline for the invention of AIs into two parts. The first part is before we reach the invention of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and the second part is the era after the invention fo Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) and beyond.

So, currently, this technology is in the infant stage and we don’t know when AGI will be invented. Maybe tomorrow, next month, next year, or never. Nobody knows but a few recent breakthroughs have indicated that one day we may be able to invent AGI.

As of now, we have solved only a few problems that will lead to the invention of AGI. We surely have a long way to go. AI(or AGI) is not just ML or DL as you hear everywhere. It’s a combination of almost every field especially when you are planning to develop an AGI. We still need to do a lot of research and solve these complex challenges.

Right now, we only have narrow AIs capable of performing only specific tasks. This will be the first stage where new businesses will emerge and these general-purpose technologies will be used to increase your productivity at work.

This suggests that in the initial stage, we will be using narrow AIs to boost our work productivity. Maybe some jobs will be gone with further developments but people will still have time and motivation to adapt and learn new skills for the emerging jobs. There will be ups and downs in economic productivity, labour demand and supply, and employment rate but there will be a huge impact on income inequality as the majority of the shares will be going to the owners of the businesses.

This pattern will be repeated for a while and people will somehow manage to adapt until the pace of AI development compounds as many people will be left behind because they won’t be able to catch up with the technological advancements. People who are in their late 30s or 40s will find it a lot more difficult to adapt to the ever-changing job market. Many will suffer, many will give up, many will adapt, many will be depressed and a few will be benefited immensely like always. The AGI is yet to come, remember!

There is one thing for sure, the majority will be left with nothing but a few will have everything if the current standard of economic policies continues to exist, and no doubt our lives as a whole will drastically improve as always. The moment AGI comes in, it will be able to perform all the jobs given the advantages machines have over human beings, or who knows what’s going to happen when we are dealing with entities with the same level of intelligence. We don’t know yet, right?

So, the question is what does the future expect from you? The future expects you to be ready to adapt and keep updating your skills. You should be ready to solve complex problems, reasoning, etc. as for machines this will take some time. If your job can be solved with the help of some mathematical algorithms you will be replaced that means if your job is repetitive and predictable with little or no involvement of high-level reasoning, creativity or intelligence then you will be replaced, for example, driving, etc.

With time, machines will be able to beat human beings in almost all areas. Last of our jobs may involve high-level intellect-based investments and complex decision-making with an understanding of various fields. The good news is you should not be worried until machines develop a sense of understanding or consciousness. We human beings are far more complex and capable of many things like empathy, communication, trust, etc. Jobs may evolve in these areas too. All you can do is become complex and learn how to be a human being because this will give you an edge over machines.

Now the question is what will the future look like for the majority of the people? Who will control it? Will there be huge inequality? How the wealth will be distributed as a result of huge economic productivity? And most importantly even if we manage to develop something like AGIs then why would they work for us? How will we control them? Are we going to work together or rule them? Obviously, I am leaving these questions for you to ponder.

So, as I mentioned earlier there can be infinite possibilities of how the future may turn out to be. Given the historical nature of human beings and the data available to us, we can certainly expect to have huge income inequalities with the current standard of economic policies. To be honest I won’t mind living in a world without human jobs but the question is how will the economic output be distributed? So, we need to find a way to distribute wealth to people so that everyone can enjoy the benefits.

Maybe we won’t be working as in jobs, and maybe we’ll be living life leisurely while exploring our purpose with friends, family, and communities but still, we all know this won’t happen until we find a way to distribute the productivity gains. We need to build a robust economic system for the future. We need to start the preparation as soon as posisble because we won’t be able to catch up with the progress. We need plans for society, and rational discussion driven by pure selfless intentions so that we can at least ensure the future stability of human society provided AGIs don’t create any trouble. Governments need to wake up and think because things will be out of control after a while. At one point in history, we human beings may have to collectively give up on the idea of greed for the future of our kids. I used the term ‘greed’ it’s not because businesses are greedy but somewhere it exists in the idea of profitability and we know our nature, right? Do you think we will ever be able to give up this nature? I don’t think so because nobody who invents or controls AGI or sophisticated AIs would like their hard-earned wealth to be distributed to others. What do you think? Comment maybe.

I don’t know what the future will look like but one thing is for sure there are a few things we can predict and control given the fact that we still have some time.